\u00d6yle bir g\u00fcndem, \u00f6yle bir karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k var ki, ekonomi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n pek \u00e7ok noktas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen bir sarmalla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7indeyiz. D\u00fcnya ve \u00fclkemizde ya\u015fanan son geli\u015fmeleri ve bize olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda biraz \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi \u00e7izmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
K\u00fcresel Riskler & Jeopolitik Gerilimler<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu\u2019nun 2025 K\u00fcresel Riskler Raporu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131lda silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin belirsizli\u011fini koruyaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu, \u00f6ylede oldu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 \u0130srail\u2011Hamas, Ukrayna\u2011Rusya\u2019dan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlere ve son olarak \u0130srail \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na kadar s\u00fcregelen krizler, k\u00fcresel ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcven ortam\u0131n\u0131 sars\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n . T\u00fcrkiye de Marsh\u2019\u0131n risk haritas\u0131nda \u201ckurumsal ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsiz\u201d \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor .<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye, pasif politikalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p aktif stratejilerle d\u00f6viz ve ticaret korumas\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu . Yani sadece izlemekle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p s\u00fcrekli d\u00f6viz al\u0131m sat\u0131m ihaleleri ve m\u00fcdahalelerle s\u00fcreci kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Tabi satmak i\u00e7inde \u00f6nce olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\uddf9\ud83c\uddf7 T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisine Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022\u0130\u00e7 politikada Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu ve di\u011fer muhalif isimlerin tutuklanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 USD\/TRY kuru dalgaland\u0131, yurt i\u00e7i belirsizlikler lirada bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131 . Senaryo, S&P\u2019ye g\u00f6re ekonomik reform g\u00fcvenini zay\u0131flatabilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022Piyasalar i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleleriyle sars\u0131ld\u0131. Lira dalgaland\u0131, BIST d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131; TCMB 25\u202fmilyar $ rezerv satarak kur m\u00fcdahalesinde bulundu .<\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83d\udcc9 PPK \u00d6ncesi Ekonomi & Faiz Alg\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2024\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faizle y\u00fczde 3\u20134 aras\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalad\u0131. 2025 i\u00e7in bu oran genel olarak y\u00fczde 3 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022OVP ve TCMB enflasyonu %17\u201121 aras\u0131 hedeflerken, IMF ve uluslararas\u0131 analizler bu rakam\u0131 %24\u201330 band\u0131na kayd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirme kabiliyeti, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (FED, ECB) ad\u0131mlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u015fekillenecek; bu da Haziran anketlerinde \u201cbir faiz indirimi ihtimali\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6yle ki haziran ay\u0131 beklenti anketinin sonucuna g\u00f6re PPK da bu y\u00f6nde hareket edebilir. Tabi ki t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda %22 olarak hedeflenen 2025 enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131n daha \u015fimdiden %30 seviyesine revize edildi\u011fini unutmayal\u0131m. Bu rakam 2-3 puan daha artacakt\u0131r \u015fahsi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83d\udcb1 D\u00f6viz Kurlar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda TRY, mart\u2013nisan d\u00f6neminde tutuklama krizi ve global risklerle de\u011fer kaybetti. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleriyle kur 38\u201340 band\u0131na \u00e7ekilse de, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve politika belirsizli\u011fi hala bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83d\udcc5 19 Haziran PPK Toplant\u0131s\u0131na Y\u00f6nelik Beklentiler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022Piyasalar, nispeten stabil tutarl\u0131l\u0131k ar\u0131yor. Enflasyondaki yava\u015flama ve d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 durumunda TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimine ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022Ancak i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131lar ve kur riskleri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece politika faizinde temkinli bir tutum tercih edilebilir. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak para politikas\u0131 kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bu geli\u015fmelere paralel faizin bu d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in sabit b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. En son Nisan ay\u0131 kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz 3,5 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %42,5 tan %46 ya \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Zor bir y\u0131l zor bir ekonomi ve \u00e7ok karma\u015f\u0131k bir \u00fclke g\u00fcndeminde bakal\u0131m bizi daha neler bekliyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sevgiyle kal\u0131n. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00d6yle bir g\u00fcndem, \u00f6yle bir karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k var ki, ekonomi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n pek \u00e7ok noktas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen bir sarmalla m\u00fccadele…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ozgun-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1807"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1807\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1808,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1807\/revisions\/1808"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}