Bazen tarih kitaplar\u0131 y\u0131llar sonra yaz\u0131l\u0131r. Ama baz\u0131 anlar vard\u0131r ki, daha ya\u015fan\u0131rken bile tarihin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini hissedersiniz. Son g\u00fcnlerde Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri operasyon tam olarak b\u00f6yle bir e\u015fik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
28 \u015eubat 2026 sabah\u0131 Ortado\u011fu yeni bir g\u00fcne de\u011fil, yeni bir d\u00f6neme uyand\u0131. Tahran ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u015fehirde patlamalar ya\u015fand\u0131; askeri tesisler, g\u00fcvenlik merkezleri ve stratejik noktalar hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Operasyonun aylar \u00f6ncesinden planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yaln\u0131zca askeri de\u011fil, siyasi sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu sald\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131radan bir \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisi\u201d de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hedef sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri kapasitesi de\u011fil, do\u011frudan rejimin gelece\u011fi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en \u00fcst d\u00fczey lider kadrosunun hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve hatta \u00fclkenin dini lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fine dair iddialar, olay\u0131n boyutunu klasik b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ve i\u015fte as\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lma burada ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran yaln\u0131zca bir \u00fclke de\u011fil; Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki dengelerin merkezidir. L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan Irak\u2019a, Suriye\u2019den K\u00f6rfez\u2019e kadar uzanan geni\u015f bir etki alan\u0131 var. Bu nedenle \u0130ran\u2019a yap\u0131lan her sald\u0131r\u0131 asl\u0131nda b\u00f6lgesel bir zincir reaksiyonu tetikler. Nitekim ilk saatlerde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki baz\u0131 ABD \u00fcslerine f\u00fcze ve drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi, sava\u015f\u0131n tek cepheli kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 as\u0131l endi\u015felendiren \u015fey ise askeri sonu\u00e7lardan \u00e7ok ekonomik ve jeopolitik etkiler. Petrol yollar\u0131n\u0131n kalbi olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 risk alt\u0131nda. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon ve tedarik zincirleri yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girebilir. Yani bu sava\u015f sadece Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun de\u011fil, \u00fclkemizdeki market fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, Avrupa\u2019daki sanayinin ve Asya\u2019daki \u00fcretimin de meselesi haline geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ama mesele sadece ekonomi de de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu geli\u015fme ayn\u0131 zamanda yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in do\u011frudan askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, uluslararas\u0131 sistemde g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yeniden normalle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin temkinli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve diplomasi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 ise art\u0131k k\u00fcresel karar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7aland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bug\u00fcn sorulmas\u0131 gereken soru \u015fu: Bu bir sava\u015f m\u0131, yoksa daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran i\u00e7inde olu\u015fabilecek siyasi bo\u015fluk, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelelerini derinle\u015ftirebilir. Rejim zay\u0131flarsa i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k; g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse daha sert bir d\u0131\u015f politika ihtimali masada. Her iki senaryo da uzun s\u00fcreli istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnya art\u0131k krizleri y\u00f6netmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor; krizlerle ya\u015famay\u0131 \u00f6\u011freniyor. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u015flayan jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u015fimdi Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck fay hatt\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Ve bu kez mesele sadece s\u0131n\u0131rlar de\u011fil, enerji, g\u00fcvenlik ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bazen tarih kitaplar\u0131 y\u0131llar sonra yaz\u0131l\u0131r. Ama baz\u0131 anlar vard\u0131r ki, daha ya\u015fan\u0131rken bile tarihin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini hissedersiniz. Son g\u00fcnlerde…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2378,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2377"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2379,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377\/revisions\/2379"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}