{"id":2670,"date":"2026-09-19T07:51:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T07:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/?p=2670"},"modified":"2026-09-19T07:51:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T07:51:38","slug":"balonlar-degisir-hikaye-degismez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/19\/balonlar-degisir-hikaye-degismez\/","title":{"rendered":"Balonlar De\u011fi\u015fir, Hik\u00e2ye De\u011fi\u015fmez"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Net konu\u015fay\u0131m k\u00f6\u015femde bug\u00fcn biraz finans tarihine bakal\u0131m.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yak\u0131n zamanda payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir yaz\u0131m vard\u0131. Tarihteki Lale \u00c7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Konulu yaz\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fanan fon \u015foku, baz\u0131 fonlarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan temerr\u00fctler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n paralar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmek istemesi ve ard\u0131ndan gelen sert piyasa hareketleri hepimizin dikkatini \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPK\u2019n\u0131n baz\u0131 portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim \u015firketlerine y\u00f6nelik ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler, fonlar\u0131n tasfiye s\u00fcreci ve baz\u0131 hisse i\u015flemlerine ili\u015fkin manip\u00fclasyon \u015f\u00fcpheleriyle ba\u015flat\u0131lan soru\u015fturmalar, asl\u0131nda sadece bug\u00fcn\u00fcn meselesi de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok eski bir hik\u00e2yesi var:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir \u015fey y\u00fckselir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130nsanlar neden y\u00fckseldi\u011fini sorgulamadan ona inanmaya ba\u015flar.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y\u00fckseli\u015f yeni ilgiyi getirir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeni ilgi fiyat\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve bir s\u00fcre sonra fiyat, ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7er.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u015fte tam burada tarihten g\u00fczel bir \u00f6rnek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lale \u00c7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1600\u2019l\u00fc y\u0131llarda Hollanda\u2019da lale so\u011fanlar\u0131na olan ilgi \u00f6yle bir noktaya geldi ki, baz\u0131 lale so\u011fanlar\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc fiyatlardan al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\u0131l mesele lalenin kendisi de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\u0131l mesele, \u201cDaha sonra bunu benden daha y\u00fcksek fiyata alacak biri mutlaka \u00e7\u0131kar\u201d<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiyat y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e daha fazla insan sisteme dahil oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daha fazla insan dahil olduk\u00e7a fiyat y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonra bir g\u00fcn beklenti bozuldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve herkesin ayn\u0131 anda satmak istedi\u011fi yerde, daha \u00f6nce \u00e7ok de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u015feyin ger\u00e7ek piyasa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olay\u0131n Lale \u00c7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n birebir ayn\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek elbette do\u011fru olmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ama mekanizma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok tan\u0131d\u0131k bir taraf\u0131 var.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacimli hisselerde b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, bu y\u00fckseli\u015flerin fon getirilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek getirinin yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ilgisi olu\u015fturmas\u0131; sonras\u0131nda ise likidite ihtiyac\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, bug\u00fcn tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan s\u00fcrecin \u00f6nemli par\u00e7alar\u0131 aras\u0131nda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u015fin en \u00f6nemli taraf\u0131 da burada:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekranda g\u00f6r\u00fcnen de\u011feri ile o varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten nakde \u00e7evrilebilecek de\u011feri her zaman ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fildir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herkes almak isterken fiyat ba\u015fka bir \u015fey s\u00f6yler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herkes satmak istedi\u011finde ise piyasa ba\u015fka bir ger\u00e7ek g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son g\u00fcnlerde baz\u0131 fonlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen temerr\u00fct tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da asl\u0131nda bize bunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 paras\u0131n\u0131 geri istedi\u011finde, fonun elindeki varl\u0131klar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve hangi fiyattan nakde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi kritik hale geliyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu nedenle bug\u00fcn ya\u015fananlar\u0131 sadece \u201cborsa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u201d diye okumak eksik kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burada konu\u015fmam\u0131z gereken daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir konu var:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De\u011fer nedir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiyat nedir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve ikisi birbirinden ne zaman ayr\u0131l\u0131r?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manip\u00fclasyon iddialar\u0131 ve soru\u015fturmalar elbette hukuki s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin konusu. Hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f iddialar\u0131 kesin ger\u00e7ekler gibi kabul etmek do\u011fru de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ama piyasalar\u0131n bize verdi\u011fi ders \u015fimdiden \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, o \u015feyin ger\u00e7ekten de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6stermez.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarih boyunca balonlar\u0131n ad\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kimi zaman lale oldu, kimi zaman ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131k, kimi zaman ba\u015fka bir piyasa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcn ise kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda fonlar, hisseler ve finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ama hik\u00e2yenin temel sorusu h\u00e2l\u00e2 ayn\u0131:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBu ger\u00e7ekten de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in mi y\u00fckseliyor, yoksa herkes y\u00fckseldi\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mi?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belki de yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda insan\u0131n kendisine zaman zaman sormas\u0131 gereken en \u00f6nemli soru bu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc balonun ne zaman \u015fi\u015fti\u011fini anlamak zor olabilir; ama patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda herkes ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Net konu\u015fay\u0131m k\u00f6\u015femde bug\u00fcn biraz finans tarihine bakal\u0131m. Yak\u0131n zamanda payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir yaz\u0131m vard\u0131. Tarihteki Lale \u00c7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Konulu yaz\u0131m. Son…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2671,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ozgun-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2670"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2670\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2672,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2670\/revisions\/2672"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}