20 Aral\u0131k 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody’s T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ‘Kredi G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc’ raporu yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yay\u0131nlanan raporda, T\u00fcrkiye’de kurumsal kapasitede toparlanman\u0131n pozitif senaryoda dahi zaman alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moody’s TCMB’den faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara vermeden \u00f6nce daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ( Yani Moody’s diyor ki daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bile olsa minimum 2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapmal\u0131s\u0131n.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TCMB en son Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda faizleri 500 baz puan art\u0131rarak 35 olan politika faizini %40 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir sonraki ve y\u0131l\u0131n son Para Piyasas\u0131 Kurul Toplant\u0131s\u0131 21 Aral\u0131k tarihinde yap\u0131lacak. Bakal\u0131m Merkez Bankas\u0131 nas\u0131l bir karar verecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Payla\u015f\u0131lan raporda “Kredi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, olumlu bir senaryoda bile toparlanmas\u0131 zaman alacak kurumsal ve y\u00f6neti\u015fim g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki erozyona kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fc ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 borcu yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de man\u015fet enflasyonun hala y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da y\u00fckselmeye devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moody’s, s\u0131k\u0131 parasal duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi durumunda T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn pozitife \u00e7evrilebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmede sert bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n yeni bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Raporda “Cari dengedeki iyile\u015fme ve artan rezervler kredi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 TCMB’nin hedefi ile uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse kredi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc iyile\u015ftirilebilir” ifadesi yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kurum, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2023’te y\u00fczde 4, 2024’te y\u00fczde 2,5, 2025’te y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyor. Ortalama enflasyonun bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 53,5, 2024’te y\u00fczde 58,9, 2025’te y\u00fczde 39,1 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ( TCMB, 2023 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini revize ederek 58 den 65’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in %36 oran\u0131nda bir enflasyon tahmininde bulunmu\u015ftu. Kredi derecelendirme kurumu ise \u00f6zellikle 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmininde %60 seviyesinde bir enflasyona i\u015faret ediyor. )<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH’ye oran\u0131n\u0131n da bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,7, 2024’te y\u00fczde 3,4, 2025’te y\u00fczde 3 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Raporda, ortodoks politikalar\u0131n 2021’deki gibi k\u0131sa vadeli olmas\u0131 durumunda kredi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn negatife \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moody’s, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notuna ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu. Moody’s, halihaz\u0131rda T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notunu “B3” ve not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc “dura\u011fan” olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde kritik bir 10 g\u00fcn var. \u00d6nce Para Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu kritik olan y\u0131l\u0131n son faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 verecek, ard\u0131ndan 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 asgari \u00fccret tespiti yap\u0131lacak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sadece faiz art\u0131rarak bir sonuca ula\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar, beraberinde yap\u0131sal di\u011fer ekonomik reformlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Birde ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i hedeflemeler konulmas\u0131 laz\u0131m, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in %36 enflasyon tahminini ger\u00e7ekten uzak bulmaktay\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bunun \u00fczerine Se\u00e7im yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, harcamalar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek yine bizi zorlu bir 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 bekliyor diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Herkese g\u00fczel bir g\u00fcn dilerim <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
20 Aral\u0131k 2023 Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody’s T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ‘Kredi G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc’ raporu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Yay\u0131nlanan raporda, T\u00fcrkiye’de kurumsal kapasitede toparlanman\u0131n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ozgun-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=331"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":333,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331\/revisions\/333"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kayaismail.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}